Fangraphs Projects Blue Jays to potentially miss out on playoff spot

The expectations are very high for the team in the North, as they have been able to compete in October baseball in three of the last four seasons. As of right now, the odds seem to be stacked against them.

As per FanGraphs, a well-known baseball statistics website, the Blue Jays are forecasted to secure the fourth spot in a fiercely contested AL East, wrapping up the season with 85 wins. The AL East is a stacked divisions with Yankees looking to have a bounce back year, and the Orioles and Rays being contenders. FanGraphs' analysis places Toronto just three victories behind the New York Yankees, who are projected to notch 88 wins, one win behind the Tampa Bay Rays with a forecast of 86 wins, and on par with the Baltimore Orioles in wins, albeit with a differential of five fewer runs throughout the season.

The chances of missing the postseason is very much a possibility. Based on this forecast, the Jays would secure the fifth spot in the American League standings based on their record. However, they would fail to qualify for the playoffs as the final postseason berths are expected to be claimed by the Minnesota Twins, who are projected to win the AL Central. Let's not forget that the Twins previously swept the Jays in the 2023 Wild Card round.

With a lackluster offseason in terms of trades and acquisitions, some injury trouble already through spring training, the Jays are going to have to squeeze out every ounce of their potential in order to make a run for a playoff spot, let alone a title.

Wrapping up their final spring training game of 2024 on Monday afternoon against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Blue Jays are now just two days away from their 2024 regular season, they will be opening the season against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday.